San Juan Island Real Estate Market Summary

In reviewing the year-end results, the sales volume for the real estate market on San Juan Island was $66,069,632 which is only 3.7% less active when compared to year 2008. This is a terrific improvement over 2008 when San Juan Island’s volume was down 53% from 2007. On San Juan Island we closed an average of 12.5 transactions per month which is down 6.3% from 2008. It is clear by the chart that each island offers unique characteristics and qualities as well as micro economies.

The impact from the national recession to each island varied with overall volume for San Juan County ending at $140,034,284, a 31.2% decrease from 2008 which is less than the 39% decrease the county experienced in 2008 when compared to 2007.

San Juan Island is in the best shape at a 3.7% decrease; Orcas experienced a 46% decrease; Lopez had a 54% decrease; and the other islands were down 18.8%. One could conclude that San Juan Island is leveling off and will benefit from the real estate market recovery first. San Juan Island experienced their largest decrease in 2008 while the other islands experienced their largest in 2009.

Each island is unique and the impact to prices on each can be noticed by reviewing the median home and lot prices for the year-end as shown below:

The median home price calculated above is for previously owned homes on less than 5 acres.  The real estate volume in the County has been on a downward trend since 2005 but the homes and lots pricing lagged the volume trend and the median prices didn’t start to decrease until 2007 and 2006, respectively.

As shown above, San Juan Island’s median lot price has decreased but not as great as the other islands or the County. There were very few land sales in the County especially on the non-ferry serviced islands and Shaw, therefore, the median price calculation is not as reliable; it takes volume to stabilize statistics. The non-ferry serviced islands’ decrease of 56.4% has a large impact on the overall San Juan County percentage.

All this information supports that San Juan Island may be the best island if you are in the market to purchase a home or unimproved property as it is the most stable.

The median home and land prices will not begin to increase until the high-end property volume increases.

As you can note by the chart, the high-end property sales dropped off considerably in 2008 which is also the year that the median home price started a downward trend.

From the all time high in 2007, the San Juan County median   home price has decreased 20% to $393,100.  San Juan Island fared slightly  better and only decreased 17% for the same period.  The median home price calculation includes all types of homes; cabins, homes in town and waterfront homes.

The volume in San Juan County peaked in 2005 and has decreased 66.4% between January 2006 and December 2009. San Juan Island was similar at a 68.7% decrease for the same period.

As you can note by the Days on Market charts the highest transaction numbers  in 2009 were in the category for property under  $400,000.  Some of this activity may have been stimulated by the $8,000 first time and $6500      repeat home buyer tax credits; however, historically we   have always closed  the highest number in that category.  What we have not been experiencing is as many closings  in  the  other categories especially the high-end.

On San Juan Island the highest number of sales was also in the under $400,000 price category.

The Days of Market charts include all types of residential, manufactured homes and vacant land transactions. In addition, these charts were compiled from the NWMLS database and only reflect listed property closings.

Our real estate market composition has changed.  Our high-end volume is down and will continue to be so until  the high-end buyers return to our market.  The market shift is not  just  in San Juan County, as the high-end sale activity was less in 2009 in the Seattle area as well, however; the impact to our small County is more significant.

The purchasers of moderately priced properties do not create enough tax volume to support the life style that our government has grown accustom to.  Real Estate is a huge funding mechanism for our County’s government, land bank and local businesses.  It is imperative that we do everything possible to help in the recovery of our real estate market and avoid anything detrimental such as creating stringent land use regulations.  The majority of the current property owners are good land stewards.